2024 is about transactions, not prices.
We started the year with the usual resolution to have a better year than last and get the prime property market moving. This, coupled with values not falling by as much as expected last year, has resulted in a little more "bounce" in the market compared to the end of last year.
However, January bounce does not mean "bounce-back" for the property market in 2024, and it's going to take a lot of effort on all our parts this year to keep the market moving.
Lonres recently published its winter update and it wasn't particularly happy viewing for property professionals! It's been a tough year or so and prices and transactions are all on the downward trend with very little to be excited about, particularly with a surprise increase in inflation after we'd all expected the opposite!
The European Central Bank is standing its ground, keeping its lending rates unchanged for the third time, despite hope it might reduce them. Other financial authorities are likely to follow suit. Most experts predict interest rates will remain at their current level for most of 2024.
Other external forces such as conflict in the Middle East and an upcoming general election in the UK will all conspire to create uncertainty and an unwillingness to move.
So, the market isn't going anywhere right now. Pretty much all the leading voices in real estate agree that prices are going to be doing much this year (see below from Prime Resi) with the hope that prices will at least bottom out for a better 2025.
Prime London
Savills 0% Prime Central London
Savills -2% Outer Prime London
Knight Frank 0% Prime Central London
Knight Frank 1% Outer Prime London
Chestertons 1.8% PCL & POL
Beauchamp Estates +1-2% (PCL super-prime, £15mn+)
Prime regions
Savills -1.5%
Knight Frank -3%
While we might try to pull out some positives with comparisons to pre-covid times, we are several years out of covid now, and the market is where it is. There is no point in referring back.
This year it's about making the most of what we have here and now. There is no point hanging on to pricing that is simply no longer relevant. What's important this year is keeping the market moving. It's about actual transactions, not prices.
So if you want to sell this year, our advice is: be focused, realistic, flexible and amenable to viewings, be prepared to negotiate, be ready to go. There are buyers out there, but they're not prepared to pay over the odds or deal with difficult vendors. There are definitely deals to be done and as ever 'there is (always) a market'.