Simon Rose: Why 2025 is the year of buyer value in Prime London
Agents, as ever, are prone to bullish optimism—always keen to declare that now is the time to buy.
But in 2025, that optimism comes with a caveat: This is not a market for indiscriminate exuberance. Simon gives the low down as to why 2025 is a market of buyer value, as featured on Prime Resi.
The London property market is a beast with many faces. One moment, it’s roaring ahead, defying expectations; the next, it’s pausing, recalibrating, rebalancing.
The past year has been no different. Agents, as ever, are prone to bullish optimism—always keen to declare that now is the time to buy. But in 2025, that optimism comes with a caveat: This is not a market for indiscriminate exuberance. It’s a market of buyer value.
The Data: Opportunity in Disguise?
Coutts’ latest analysis of Prime Central London (PCL) paints a picture of opportunity. Yes, transaction volumes are up - 31% higher in Q4 2024 than the same period a year prior. Yes, the super-prime market (£10mn+) is ‘flourishing’. But here’s the kicker: more than three-quarters (76%) of deals closed below asking price, with average discounts of -8.9%. This is not a sellers’ market.
Further perspective: the average PCL property is now 8.4% below its 2014 peak, with some postcodes seeing even sharper declines. American buyers, buoyed by currency advantages, are securing effective discounts of up to 44% in areas like Chelsea.
In short, despite the uptick in sales activity, pricing remains under pressure. This is the moment for buyers to extract value—not the moment for sellers to assume a return to boom-time conditions.
Forecasts: Cautious Optimism or False Dawn?
The forecasts for 2025 reflect this tension. While some estate agencies predict a modest recovery in prices—Knight Frank anticipates a 2% rise in PCL, Chestertons a more optimistic 3.5%—Savills stands alone in forecasting a 4% drop. This divergence highlights the uncertainty underpinning the market.
At Rose & Partners, we certainly feel that Savills’ cautionary figures are more accurate for Prime Central London, where we ply our trade. The reality is that while some market sectors may see modest growth, PCL remains under structural pressures that will keep values subdued for now.
On a macro level, London’s property market has underperformed for half a decade. Since 2019, average London house prices have risen just 12%, compared to 21% nationwide. The capital’s premium over the rest of the UK has been steadily eroded, falling from 101% in 2019 to 86% today. There are whispers of a turning point—of London’s gravitational pull reasserting itself—but that remains to be seen.
The Main Takeaway: 2025 Is a Buyer’s Market
For all the transactional activity, one thing is clear: in 2025, buyers hold the cards.
Sellers, many of whom have been reluctant to adjust to market realities, are now having to concede on price. This is especially true in traditionally strong enclaves like Chelsea, where values remain up to 20% below peak. The era of easy capital appreciation is over. The era of strategic acquisitions has begun.
For buyers, there has never been a better time in the past decade to choose the right house - one that fits their long-term needs and ambitions. The best purchase is not necessarily the cheapest or most discounted property, but rather the right home at the right price in the right location.
While data and price per square foot dominate negotiations, buyers should remember they are ultimately buying a home. Yes, we all want our assets to appreciate, but property is unique. Unlike other assets, it can be used for practical reasons while also allowing for significant borrowing against its value. It offers a rare combination: utility, leverage, and the potential for appreciation (as well as depreciation).
The difference in today’s market compared to 25 years ago is stamp duty. In the past, when buyers outnumbered available properties, agents would often tweak pricing after six weeks and fend off buyers questioning why a property hadn’t sold. Back then, it was possible to look a buyer in the eye and confidently say that in just a few months, the market would reach the asking price—perhaps they were overpaying, but they would quickly recoup that premium.
That is no longer the case. Stamp duty has blocked speculative purchases, shifting the investment timeline. Now, buyers need to think in 5-10 year horizons to have any realistic expectation of recouping their initial investment. The timeline for selling is also much longer, with properties often taking a year or more to move if the initial asking price was ‘ambitious.’
So, what does this mean for those in the market? Buyers should be discerning, disciplined, and ready to negotiate hard. The deals are there for those who seek them. And for sellers, a word of caution: just because agents are talking up demand does not mean prices will surge overnight. Expect negotiation, expect realism, and above all, expect buyers to call the shots.
2025 is not a year of blind faith in an ever-rising market. It is a year of buyer value. And those who recognise that will be the ones who win.
Key Considerations:
Transaction volumes are rising, but prices remain under pressure.
More than 76% of deals in Q4 2024 closed below asking price with an average discount of -8.9%.
Prime Central London (PCL) prices remain 8.4% below their 2014 peak.
Currency advantages make London particularly attractive to USD buyers.
Savills predicts a -4% decline in PCL prices for 2025, while others expect modest growth.
London's market has underperformed since 2019, narrowing its premium over the UK.
Buyers hold the upper hand in negotiations, making 2025 a year of strategic acquisitions.
Sellers must adjust to market realities and expect negotiations.
The era of easy capital appreciation is over, buyers need to be strategic.
Now is the best time in a decade for buyers to find the right house—not just the cheapest.
Buyers should remember they are purchasing a home, not just an asset, and consider longer-term horizons due to stamp duty impacts.
If you want to chat more about your property for sale or what you’re looking to purchase, please get in touch.
Prime Resi published this article on 17.2.25: https://primeresi.com/simon-rose-why-2025-is-the-year-of-buyer-value-in-prime-london/